I read your article, which was quite good btw, and I'm also curious to see where you land. Asset management systems are personal things, that somehow need to reflect our own personal view of how the world should be organized. My experience is, that once someone feels comfortable with a system, they stick with it.
I think iPhoto 5 will thrive because iPhoto already has so many users (who will love this update) and because there are so many new people realizing they need asset management who will be attracted to iPhoto's approach. But I think software such as iView will continue to do well too because it reflects a different way to organize, which resonates with a whole different segment of the population.
Or I could be wrong...