I had sent this as a private Email to Tim and he encouraged me to post it here.
I think you are on track with your article, but we differ one key point and as a result IM is #4 on the list. I feel it is about communication. Everything revolves around that.
Let me give you a short example ...
In any company, if an employee is looking for some info - the chances are that he/she will ask someone rather then search the Intranet. This is why EMail/IM will remain the most widely used applications, even over Web browsing.
Anyway, our goal is to build a new communication system and the need is described here http://i3connect.com/need.html
We are about 5% done but we have done some very interesting things like http://i3connect.com/DefectCaseStudy.html, which is an integration of Mantis (an Open Source bug database) with the Vista communication platform http://i3connect.com/platform.html and yes, we support Jabber. Would love to hear your thoughts on Vista.
I liked the article at time where some folks think that the Internet is a washed out technology. It is nice to know that progress still continues.