I think Satya does a good job of describing a problem here. And I believe the skill set he mentions is both attractive and equivalent to the bazaar skills.
But I believe that the main reason for a lack of adoption is hosting costs.
My experience in 4 years of transfering from the bazaar to the cathedral was constantly hampered by the lack of good virtual hosting.
Even the cheapest reliable Tomcat host I could find was about $100 a month. A few monts ago I finally found a JRun virtual host for $50 a month and so I'm finally going to be happy when they upgrade to 4 and I get my own management console,
But if folk want to compete with .net for small and midsize development the servers have to support features for virtual hosting.