5 Predictions for 2003

by William Grosso


Well, it's that time of year again. Retrospectives and predictions abound; people are scurrying 'round talking about the events of 2002 and predicting what will happen in 2003. Since I'm all in favor of a little mad scurrying, I'm going to join in the fun.
I'm a little late out of the gate with this (What can I say? We started celebrating even earlier than Ted), but here are my top five technology predictions for 2003:


5. JBoss moves past 50% marketetshare in the EJB space. This is pretty much a no-brainer. JBoss is free, it works well, it's got a large and growing number of users, and it's just nice. I also don't agree with Ted that EJB will be dead by year's end, but that's a different story entirely.



4. A massive shakeout in the CRM space. There's just too many companies. And far too many of them are still venture-backed and looking for a profit. The combination of shaky finances and Microsoft looming on the horizon is going to cause buyers to pause. And that's going to start the dominos falling.


3. $300 linux boxes at Walmart (and other low-end retailers) will become the standard system for home users. I honestly think that the introduction of these boxes by mass-market retailers was was the most significant tech news for 2002, and that the significance was mostly missed. Walmart is lowering costs by using linux. And they're producing PCs which are more than good enough for most applications. This is huge, and along with Apple's resurgence, signals the re-emergence of Java on the client side.


2. Broadband will hit 5 million new households a quarter. Right now, in the United States, broadband adoption is approximately 1.7 million households per quarter. And it's growing at a rate of 9% per month. Since the report is from the third quarter, if we just assume the 9% figure holds steady, compounding the 9% monthly gets us to more than 3.5 million new broadband connections in Q4 of 2003. That's a safe and reasonable prediction. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say that, by Q3 of 2003, as the United States firmly leaves this recession behind, broadband adoption will be skyrocketing.


1. The emergence of P2P strategy and simulation gaming networks. What happens when $300 linux-based servers(#3) can run free enterprise class servers (#5) from the basement using a broadband connection (#2)? And when a significant percentage of them are also running wi-fi networks? In the short run, I'm guessing one hell of a finely detailed version of Axis and Allies. In the long run? The rebirth of the internet.


And that's it-- my top 5 predictions for 2003. I'm finding it a little weird that I didn't mention XML, web-services, Mozilla, wireless devices, or SDForum. Who would've predicted that?


Am I off base? What would you have included here?


13 Comments

stmpjmpr
2003-01-01 17:58:41
Not a chance
I'll eat my hat if $300 Linux boxes are going to be the "standard system for home users."
anonymous2
2003-01-02 10:09:08
Most of those $300 Wal-mart Linux boxes...
... will be running a pirated copy of Windows within a week of purchase.
anonymous2
2003-01-02 13:25:55
just one prediction
Java will die a slow death, so will Sun
anonymous2
2003-01-02 18:54:33
... the ingredients are there
A combination of quality open-source software (Linux, OpenOffice, MySQL, etc) and for zip make these predictions a possibility for 2003.
anonymous2
2003-01-03 07:56:42
JBoss and EJB and J2EE
I think Ted's prediction about EJB may be correct. Note, this is a prediction about EJB, not J2EE. If Ted is correct, the next version of JBoss, v 4.0, will be in a primo position to take up the slack. With its AOP architecture, it will be possible to create advanced services that way go beyond what the EJB spec now mandates.
anonymous2
2003-01-03 13:15:12
linux boxes
I am using Linux (Red Hat 8.0 and Mandrake 9.0) on my "old" 300 MHz PII-300, and am very, very satisfied. Connection setup for the high speed ADSL service was particularly easy. I hope Linux is here to stay and prosper. I'll do my best to help it.
anonymous2
2003-01-04 16:17:00
Do I care?
Do I care what software my inexpensive TV, Sat Receiver, Dolby Surround use?
No.


Just as long as I can watch live sport on my TV with surround sound.


The world is not full of programers.

anonymous2
2003-01-07 22:59:57
Java is dying
I'll second the comments of the other anonymous poster. Java and Sun are dying. Java on the client side is a pipe dream Sun gave up long ago. In a similar manner Sun is giving up the ghost on EJB and J2EE and running towards cell phones and J2ME.


Here is my prediction for you for the next year. You will be stocking up on C# books.

wegrosso
2003-01-12 09:49:10
Evidence?
People make claims like "X is Dying" all the time. But what motivates the claim? Do you have evidence? Everything I see points towards Java's continued growth as a programming language.


I can't imagine anyone seriously claiming SUN is giving up on J2EE.

anonymous2
2003-05-08 08:58:29
Not a chance
I hope you are hungry......


Do you want some java with that?

anonymous2
2003-05-08 08:59:14
Most of those $300 Wal-mart Linux boxes...
Hey,



Get you a $299 linux box at walmart.


Or get on without an OS and install linux.


anonymous2
2003-07-17 11:11:56
Java is dying
It's all money ! Microsoft still keeping so much billions to keep it driving. while Sun is hanging around with very few millions.


It's just a srvival thing... Once you loose the support for Java, what any corp is going to do. get rid of it !!!!


Java will die soon....

anonymous2
2003-09-12 21:27:42
Java is dying
At our company Java it is already dead. Budget called for massive layoffs and those who stayed are pre-dot-com guys who knew how *things* actually work, down to the driver level. Some groups actually tried to code critical realtime apps with Java. While they were "theoretically" getting better code done, and faster, the projects never worked up to the required standards. In the end, it cost us big time. We are re-writing everything in C now. Indeed, we had some code that dated back to the late 70's (before most of you were even born) and it still worked fine. Going to Java was a big mistake.