Hardball assessment of the future of media

by Andy Oram

Related link: http://www.nonesuch.org/p2prevolution.pdf



Many people have predicted that peer-to-peer file-sharing will change
the face of media, but this paper by Scott Jensen is the most
thoroughgoing research I've seen into the commercial and artistic
effects that peer-to-peer can potentially lead to. The paper is bold
and futuristic, which means there are plenty of places the path it
lays out could be sidetracked, but I think it's important reading. It
makes me a little afraid to work for an old-style publication company,
even one as innovative as O'Reilly & Associates.


Will it be?


4 Comments

anonymous2
2003-09-10 03:57:55
overly optimistic
The article is overly optimistic in thinking that there is enough money to be made from things like sponsorship advertising of movies to enable those to be distributed without payment over p2p networks.
Similarly, concert ticket sales will never cover the cost of the entire tour even with sponsorship deals (and if bands start interrupting their concerts for 5 minutes of sponsorship messages after each song they won't get a public for long).


He continues this idea that advertising and addon services will generate enough income to offset the cost of offering a complete product free of charge over p2p networks several times.
He seems to think that MMP games will work when in effect most of them die quick deaths because they simply don't generate the income.
And for those that don't, the number of hacked accounts for which noone pays is large enough that income is marginal.


At every turn he exchanges the positions of the current revenue generator (the product) and supporting income streams and marketing tools (online gaming servers, advertising, band tours) and then scraps the current revenue generator claiming that the (current) supporting stream can generate the same income if only properly used (which is of course through the marvels of reaching a lot more people through p2p networks).


To me this entire article reads more like a rant from a p2p user who wants some justification of his actions by calling himself a visionary and role model for the industry rather than a criminal profiteur.

anonymous2
2003-09-10 11:40:56
overly optimistic
Explain tv over the airwaves then, especially pre-cable. Under your theory it should never have worked.
anonymous2
2003-09-18 11:37:37
Re: overly optimistic
First, this is Scott Jensen, the author of the white paper.


Criticism One: Not enough money would be generated from sponsorships to pay for movies.


Reply: True. However, I never said in the white paper that movie companies would make money from sponsorships. Product placements and merchandise sales, yes. Sponsorships, no.


Criticism Two: Concert tickets sales don't cover the cost of the concerts, even with sponsorships of them.


Reply: False. All musicians, except a very few superstars, make nearly all their income from ticket sales to and merchandise sales (i.e., t-shirt sales) at their live performances. For more on this, see Janis Ian's articles at the following link:


http://www.janisian.com/article-internet_debacle.html


Criticism Three: MMORPGs die quick deaths and never make any money.


Reply: First, 90% of all new businesses fail. Why would MMORPGs be any different? Second, some MMORPGs make a lot of money. Otherwise, why would Sony have come out with Star Wars Galaxies after, by your assertions, they lost money or made very little on EverQuest? Also, creating MMORPGs is the hottest thing in the computer game industry right now. More and more computer game companies are working on their own MMORPGs. They wouldn't be doing this if there wasn't a proven profit in doing so.


Criticism Four: MMORPGs can be hacked and thus are already losing money to hackers.


Reply: I know of no verified hacking of any current MMORPG company servers. Please give such incidents. For you see, your MMORPG character doesn't reside on your computer but on the company's servers. To thus hack the MMORPG, you have to hack their servers and I've never heard of a successful hacking attempt.


Criticism Five: The new revenue stream from what I propose in the white paper will be the same as the current revenue generated by the present system.


Reply: I never stated this in the white paper. The new revenue stream might be more, same, or less. That's actually not important to what I predict in the white paper. What I did state in the white paper is that the "current revenue generator" will be replaced with a new one based on the reality of p2p.

anonymous2
2003-12-27 14:00:41
Re: overly optimistic
-------QUOTE--------
Criticism Four: MMORPGs can be hacked and thus are already losing money to hackers.


Reply: I know of no verified hacking of any current MMORPG company servers. Please give such incidents. For you see, your MMORPG character doesn't reside on your computer but on the company's servers. To thus hack the MMORPG, you have to hack their servers and I've never heard of a successful hacking attempt.
-------END QUOTE--------



See here and you know that MMPORG Servers aren't perfectly secure: http://www.landfield.com/isn/mail-archive/2001/Sep/0033.html