Immune to the Zune
by Jeremiah Foster
Apple's iPod is going to be immune to the Zune simply because Microsoft has not built an experience, just a beautiful, hobbled media player. Microsoft does not only need to play catch-up, they also need to build a complete experience and ecosystem that work together. That is not something they are good at.
I'm not sure iTunes is dying. Check out this interesting analysis from Blackfriars' Marketing.
It does seem that every day we see something new from Microsofties talking about the mistakes the company has made. Allchin's "we lost our way" comment was intended for internal consumption; he was trying to rouse the troops. But lately it seems outside of the XBox, Microsoft has been tripping all over themselves.
Please don't pass off hearsay as fact - the Forrester research has not been corroborated, and is in fact contradicted by the Akamai traffic figures, which measure actual downloads from music sites. The Forrester 'research' only looked at credit card transactions, and didn't take into account iTunes gift vouchers at all.
I believe Forrester also harbour some anti-Apple sentiments for some reason. Perhaps they've sold short ? In any case, I believe it was the same organisation that advised Apple get out of the hardware market, shortly before Apple posted record hardware sales.
More here : http://www.blackfriarsinc.com/blog/2006/12/do-math-itunes-sales-arent-collapsing.html
Oh - the rest of your post was an accurate analysis ! :)