Java outlook through 2004

by Steve Anglin

"Java has reached mainstream appeal, but a number of challenges remain as many enterprises deploy their first mission-critical Java solutions during the next several years," according to ZDNET.

Challenges include:



  • Lack of qualified Java programmers will continue to be an issue as many enterprises adopt Java platform technologies for the first time.


  • "The rate of evolution of the core Java platform will decrease, while extended APIs will continue to rapidly appear."


  • "Vendors will be challenged to “dumb down” much of Java’s underlying complexity to support mainstream and conservative AD organisations in their efforts to successfully deploy real-world Java solutions."


  • Java will formally and inclusively integrate Web services technologies, but support will vary widely among the many J2EE vendors in the short term.


  • Java will continue to be pivotal in the rapidly emerging mobile and wireless AD markets, especially cell phone sets given strong partnerships with Nextel and Motorola.


I'm wondering what the outlook for open source Java will be through 2004, something not discussed in this article? My thoughts are that nearly all of the Java platform will have open source vendor support with implementations.




What do you see for Java over the next three or so years?